Novosibirsk, Russian Federation
UDK 33 Экономика. Экономические науки
The research featured the development of effective digital technology for regulating the dairy industry. The study employed the innodiversification approach combined with simulation modeling. The empirical base was obtained from the databases of the national Union of milk producers. The authors proposed to apply the paradoxical theory of regulation. Its hypothesis is based on the fact that there is a relationship between the regulatory effect and the parameters of the dairy industry that do not have a functional relationship with it (the correlation coefficient approaching 0), through a multilevel chain of indirect relationships of parameters that are more connected with the regulator. The authors developed a mechanism that uses actual data from open sources and builds up digital models of the dairy industry of the Republic of Tuva. The article introduces a method of direct prediction of the parameters of the local dairy subcomplex. The method used not only an unregulated time factor but also the regulated factor of the state support funds. It calculated three different scenarios for the development of the dairy subcomplex: pessimistic, expected, and optimistic. In addition, the article offers a method of reverse prediction to calculate the necessary amount of state support that makes it possible to achieve the target parameters of the dairy subcomplex.
paradoxical theory of regulation, innodiversification approach, agro-industrial complex, anti-crisis management, forecasting, state support
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